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VALUE INVESTING SPECIAL INTEREST GROUP, EVENTS and NEWS at AAII - PHILADELPHIA CHAPTER, Our VI SIG Home Page
IMPORTANT ---- GETTING TO THE INQUIRER PRINTING PLANT LOCATION: The VI SIG meeting location is at the modern Inquirer Printing Plant located between Bridgeport and WEST Conshohocken along Route 23. Their proper address is 800 River Road, King of Prussia, Pa. If you need a map, MapQuest or Google will provide a clear map using just this address.
While the instructions below are very detailed, you will find that the suggested routes are easy to follow once you try them.
Note: ROUTE 23 is also River Road and Front Street in West Conshohocken. It runs on the WEST side of the Schuykill River. That's from tiny WEST CONSHOHOCKEN, not Conshohocken itself.
The plant is located midway between WEST Conshohocken and Brigeport between ROUTE 23 and the river, just north of the traffic light at the intersection with Route 320. The three parking lot entrances are near this light. The first is at the traffic light and two more are further along Route 23, nearer the plant.
(A REMINDER: The enormous plant itself extends some distance north along Route 23 toward Bridgeport, so you do not want to go into the loading dock area at the Bridgeport end or it's other entrance at the far side of the parking lot. Both are signposted.)
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Expanded from BOB's NOTE: Here is the address if using Mapquest:
800 River Road
King of Prussia, PA
If using a regular map:
It is about 1.5 miles from WEST Conshohocken on Route 23 going toward Bridgeport. Note that WEST Conshohocken is on the opposite side of the river from the landmark Marriot hotel in downtown Conshohocken. Proceeding on Route 23 toward Bridgeport, the Inquirer printing plant building is on your right. it is setback from the road and easy to miss in the dark. Just watch for the traffic light at the Intersection with Route 320. You can turn right at this light or continue on a few yards on Route 23 to the two additional entrances to the parking lot.
DO NOT enter the loading area at the Bridgeport end of the plant or the one at the back of the parking lot.
Park in the lot and walk up the path to the road side of the building to the main entrance. Tell the guard you are there for the AAII meeting. There are stairs on the right side of the lobby and the meeting room is directly over the lobby on the second floor.
If coming in the opposite direction on Route 23 from Bridgeport, the plant is a bit hard to spot at night as it's behind a fence and shrubs on your left, so you might miss the first two entrances to the parking lot. But if you turn left at the light at the intersection with Route 320, you can loop back into the parking lot from there.
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Here are detailed summaries for those coming by a different routes:
If you are coming via WEST Conshohocken, Route 23 North is well marked and is known as Front Street and later as River Road in WEST Conshohocken. It is on the WEST site of the river in this small community near the Expressway, not in downtown Conshohocken on the other side of the bridge. Follow the directions above to the plant.
If you are coming from Bridgeport (south of Norristown via Route 202), Route 23 South is also marked as 4th Street. Watch the signs as there has been construction in the area. You will pass through Bridgeport's factory area. Continue on Route 23 to Inquirer plant over a mile onward. The plant is hard to see in the dark as it's behind shrubs and not well lit along the road side. You can turn left into any of the three entrances to the parking lot at the Conshohocken end of the plant. Note that the last entrance is a left turn at the traffic light at the intersection with Route 320.
If you a coming via Route 476 from either direction. remember that Conshokoken lies on the northeast side of the River. You want follow the exit signs for Conshokoken into tiny WEST Conshokoken. Before crossing the bridge into downtown Conshokoken, look for the signs to Route 23/River Road/Front Street and turn left there. Then follow the Route 23 directions above.
If you are coming From the King of Prussia exit of the Turnpike or Route 202, take the Schuykill Expressway south toward Philadelphia. Exit at the Gulph Mills/Route 320 exit (before getting to the Conshohocken exit), and turn left at the bottom of the hill onto Route 320 NORTH at Gulph Road. (BE CAREFUL TO FOLLOW THE ROUTE 320 NORTH SIGNS. DO NOT TURN RIGHT ONTO ROUTE 320 SOUTH!) Follow Route 320 NORTH (taking the right leg of the road branch that comes shortly after passing under the Expressway bridge) and continue on Route 320 NORTH until it ends at the at the traffic light at a T-intersection with Route 23 / River Road.
The first entrance to the parking area is directly ahead of you at the traffic light at the intersection with Route 23. If you turn left onto Route 23 you will find more convenient entrances to the lot just a few yards onward.
Alternatively, you can continue south to the Conshohohen exit and follow the instructions above.
If coming north on the Schuykill (or via Route 476), you can avoid going into West Conshohoken to reach Route 23 (at Front Street). Instead head north on the Expressway toward King of Prussia and take the exit at the Gulph Mills/Route 320 exit. This exit is a bit tricky - a Left, then a Right onto the marked Route 320 NORTH, taking a right at the Y in the road - it's all well marked. Then follow the instructions in the preceding paragraph to follow Route 320 North to it's end.
YOU HAVE ARRIVED! Once you find a space in the well lit lot, then walk to the main entrance on the road (left) side of the building. Enter the lobby and check with the guard, the walk up the stairway on your left to the meeting room on the second floor just over the lobby.
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REMEMBER, CHECK THIS PAGE FOR LATE BREAKING INFORMATION: When the weather or other factors make a last minute change to a meeting schedule, we try to post a notice here and send an e-mail notification to those that have signed up, so always remember to check-in if in doubt.
And if we are so good at stock picks, how about Bob's call on the weather - moving the meeting to Wednesday instead of Tuesday just to avoid February's "last gasp of Winter" (we hope).
So join us to see if we can pick 'em in February as well as we can predict the weather. So who says that overgrown rodent in rural Western Pennsylvania can call the weather just by looking at his shadow. P.S. Rumor is he's a she!
Regardless of your opinion, we surely are revising our lists of bargains and overpriced stocks after the recent market move. Do you still have a classic value stock, one that says pick up a $1.00 in value for $0.50. Could be a Gem hiding in an out of favor sector. Might be a stock where new factors are changing the firms prospects. Whatever it is, dig up a few facts on your favorite and spend a few minutes telling the group what you have unearthed.
After the meeting, we'll go to a local beanery for food and other refreshment to celebrate surviving this brutal market year.
While the location is changed, the meeting format isn't. So pack up your hottest suggestion to commend to the assembled group!
Perma-Bears and other depressive financial types say it's a "dead cat bounce". This is based on bad news to come - more financial and real estate fiascos, the likely permanent loss of a lot of mangufacturing jobs, shortfalls in state budgets and even the prediction that the next quarter will not show earnings growth as present profits rest on cleaning up the books and inventories, not woth rising sales and margins,
Even Helicopter Benn's adheriants financial stimulus flights are having spotty effect if any.
Not much permantly good news and the loads of potentially bad news, many of which could shake the market. Swing Flue, Continued higher unemployment, more collapses in the housing and commercial Real Estate market, and a host of horror news from around the world are but a few of the shoes left to drop.
It's a left brain/right brain problem, too. Nothing helps a good stock market like rising consumer confidence. Think positive and you will likely see the real recovery far before it arrives. A Doubting Thomas might miss the real second leg of remover.
What's an investor to do? One thing is to rework your buy/sell list. Have a target list of "shovel ready" transactions. Keep up to date on Mr. Market and financial indicators (especially leading one).
Be Prepaired, that's a valid approach for both of these camps. Attending your CI SIG, bringing along your stock pick of the month is one too.
Even the "green shoots" detected in Washington didn't seem to be seen here. Yet a good value investor could have made some outsized profits as some stocks rose x2, x4 or even more. Yet others didn't move much.
At the VI SIG meetings, our team did unearth some of the good stocks by looking into industries were all hope was not lost. July should bring another crop of them, so be there.
Keep up with the "new location" process by checking in here. See also the note above on why we will be moving soon.
With the traditional summer doldrums here, the financial press is pointing to more dead shoots than those green ones Washington seems to find. Yes, there is still visable and more toxic news yet to appear.
Is this really the March bottom and the "wall of worry" that often precedes a return to good times? Or is it merely an elaborate "dead cat bounce?
More importantly have our fellow Value Investors found a select few of those spring green shoots, or even the late to emerge ones that will become true value stocks?
If you don't come to the Tuesday VI SIG meeting - you never will know! Oh, and bring your best suggestion, too.
~~~~~ You make a lot of money investing while the market climbs the wall of worry. You just don't know it at the time~~~~~~~~.
Well, our little group may or may not know this, but they have come up with some good acting stocks along with analysis that says these may not be "spring shoots", but really longer term prospects.
Will there be more in May. Likely so. If not, they grey cloud over the meeting will help to warn you away.....
Or should we play the game of recent 5 to 10 times instant gains in stocks as doggy as Sirius and Unisys and instant starts like Dendrion? See if our stalward Value Investors stick to their guns and still hope for real value in the Market. For their will be winners even in a crappy market, and we have to find them now!
Well, spend the evening more profitabily as we contemplate what are those "Picassos laying in the driveway waiting to be picked up" (as one Wall Street Wag said). Are the real future values to be industries in Obama's vision of a Green Future or are they in the Good Old Traditional companies merely dragged down with the dross that's in Wall Street's Son of TARP meltdown? For ideas, see you there with your own best idea, as we dance away the night in our own party.
Sure you are scared, but even if you don't want to do anything now, start looking for things that might be a buy sometime in 2009. There is nothing wrong with moving funds into a more attractive stock, even today. But even if that's too much to think about today, what about thinking about the day when you do find some moves you can tolerate.
The old saw that the stocks that fade the least when the market tanks are the ones that recover first when it rises, may not apply in a market that kills everything. Another watch word is that the market looks typically looks about six months ahead to the economy might be another trueism - or another trap. .
What are your thoughts: Cement for infrastructure, windmills for energy, drugs for the ill or something off the wall or hidden by todays turmoil? For example, Take a look at the "arms merchants". They are the little appreciated vendors that sell supporting gear to the prime movers that will emerge. Do you favor firms that benefit from political decisions - or those that no government can favor or stop? Let's hear your ideas as we discuss ideas for today - and for tomorrow.
Now we're in the annual Sept-Oct market doldrums, with a few extras to make the gloom even worse. Add to market and economic frights, a few bastions of Wall Steet vanishing plus a little event in November called the election and you are surely getting colder feet. Now is the time to spend some time lining up good prospects for the future. For someday you will get the urge to slip a few dollers into the market - and you will have a short list of candidates.
So even if you are not buying today, start looking for true value - true gold with a smudge of mud that these rainey days will soon wash away. A good way to start is to attend the Value Investors SIG meeting to see what some savy investors are looking at today for their future.
So suck it up, venture into the heat and join your fellow investors to see if we can find some decent investments in all this distressing market action. If not, perhaps we can at least comfort you.
.........And we will remind you that there will be a day and a time when we can make some of our losses back ..... and now is the time to plan for that day.
Bring some Kleenex, too. And bring a Stock/Investment idea to discuss during our monthly rountable.
As usual, we'll be in roundtable mode, so bring your best recommendation and be prepaired to say a few words about your value find. Plus, a surprise bonus!
So here's your chance to win fame and fortune by tuning the rest of the group into your crystal ball batgains.
As usual, it's a round-table idea fest. Pick your best idea, plan on about a 5 five minute intro plus some interactive discussion. See you there!
Even in the worse of times, there's always a demand for booze, eats, meds, recreation and even utilities and fuel. So find a hidden bargain to share with the group. You need only a short assessment, so focus on the driving factors at the meeting.
(Yup, we're continuing the new meeting format then.)
We will continue using the discussion program that we've been using for recent months, so bring your best stock selection and be ready to do a few minutes on it. Tell us the good (and bad) news, your projections and even a few details of the operations behind the security in question. It's interactive, so you'll get some good questions to answer.
As is traditional in December, after the meeting we adjurn to a nearby eatery to celebrate our successful investing year, moan about how bad it was and/or steel ourselves for 2008. Adjust your attitude before you come or while you are there as need be.
We're adding a new feature, the Free Ride, also known as a recap. Here is an opportunity to follow up on a previous months discussion. Did your previous pick pan out (or not)? Got new information that changes your opinion? Time to pass it on.
Remember out December meeting (12/18/07) will include our traditional post-meeting stop at a local restaurant for an end of year drink and snack.
TUESDAY OCTOBER 16, 2007: MERRY-GO-ROUND: We've had such success with our version of Merry-Go-Round that we're continuing it. We go arround the room and have each attendee present a mini-appraisal of his/her favorite (or unfavorate) stock. In five minutes (or a bit more) give us the why's and wherefore's of your best value investment. Remember Value really means "to pick up a buck for only 50 cents of less". So value it is.... value to you in terms of new ideas, ways of looking at things, and most of all, bucks in the pocket. See you there!
For tonight we're again doing the Roundtable where we all fes up with a good stock target. Take you turn, then learn from others. A great way to expand your list of opportunities. And win both (limited) fame and (massive) fortune for your self, plus the satisfaction of a deed well done.
To get things started, we've still got three stocks we didn't have time to get done in June. They are Progressive Insurance (PGR, here's the story behing those white SUVs) , Humana (HUM, that health care giant) and Philadelphia Consolidated (PHLY, the NAIC stock of the month and an old friend from our last review some years ago). Quite a startup list. Will your picks be as interesting? Time to start thinking about your single best selection!
Actually "selling" is a real responsibility as you will have just a few minutes to explain convincingly what your idea is and why its'a Value Gem. Can you get our members really interested in backing your idea with real money? Will they vote your stock "top pick" of the night and your presentation the best of the evening?
Remember, Value Investors look to buy a $1 value for $0.50 or less, so focus on VALUE, plus aspects such as time scale of the trade, objectives, and naturally the profit potential. (Remember this is NOT a day trading seminar, its value investing.) Of course, your true reward is in the profit you make from your idea or one you get from another member - glory and fame are nice but a solid profit is better.
To help you along we'll bring a computer with data on about 7500 domestic stocks (NYSE, ASE and NASDAQ). We can pop up a historical price chart along with some summary fundamental data on each stock. If you prefer, bring along a simple handout or a USB memory module with your data. We can support Microsoft PowerPoint, Word and Excel formats, as well as Adobe PDF. You have just minutes to complete your pitch, so keep it short and to the point.
I won't ask the usual question on commonality between these two stocks, like how many Fastenal fasteners are in the average Pulte home. But with the rough housing market, you might like to ask several. Like how will Pulte fare in these tought times (remember, most housing stocks were bankrupt or nearly so in 1995, only to become the darlings of the market just a few years later). Or again, how will Fastenal fare if there is a general downturn. Admittedly, the upturn in aircraft sales will help their high end product line - but what about the overall bottom line?
See you at the meeting to find out the answers to these and other profitmaking questions. (Note: no projector this evening.)
In any case, you can make one more solid connection - use E*TRADE to purchase PETS stock, even ETFC stock and save on your brokerage costs!
february meeting announcement =- to be restored here.......
So it's a study in contrasts - from doin' great to handin' in there. Which one is the profile for you, or is it merely two great companies to study? Find out tonight!
< Tonight, we will be giving thanks for some other biggies - United Healthcare (aka as UnitedHealth Group (UNH)) and Time Warner (TWX). Naturally, we hope that Thursday excesses will NOT drive you to use UNHs benefits at your local hospital. But for 65 Million Americans, UNH is the gatekeeper there and elsewhere. It's been a rapidly expanding health octapus, as it gobbles up reagional insurers and health care resources. Also, it's been the center of accountancy problems, which has lead to delayed reporting and a flurry of resignations and restatements caused by options pricing scandals. So the stock may be on the bargain table due to what may be temporary effects. Our analysis tonight should show if this is true - making UHN a value bargain; or these troubles are merely harbingers of more bad news to come.
As for TWX, their-all-to-public troubles cover this century. TWI was a publications giant that attempted to jump out of the doldrums with a much heralded merger with AOL. It was a magnaficant wealth destruction move that's never paid off, leaving TWX stuck below $20 for years, a fraction of it's pre-2000 peak near $90. Yet, recent news suggests better days ahead for TWX. It's stock has started to move. Could be a false sign or perhaps just an indication of a fast moving train about to leave the station. Get your TWX travel plans tonight.
As a bonus, Bob Bolder will be presenting his Framework sheet on TWX that can be reused by all of use to make workups of our favorite stock (or next VI SIG analysis). It's a refinement of the worksheet mentioned in last months meeting announcement. Showing you TWX in this manner will benefit us in two ways: Providing us a basis for evaluating TWX fundamentals and learning how to use this as a standard for our own analysis.
If we drop before we shop, the "reserve stock" Holly Oil (HOC) will be back on the burner for a wintery November review.
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Actually three topics tonight:
* ORGANZATION for 2006-07: The start of a new year is often the time to shake up things and start to plan for the new year. In more ways than one, September is really the start of the VI SIG, the AAII and the stock market year. For fresh from vacations and with colder weather coming on, it's where all of us start thinking more about investing. Your investment in VI SIG and the benefits you get from the time you spend are true investments in your investment results. You learn not only about stocks to invest in, but ways to do the analysis that's needed. So tonight we'll have a group grope on what VI SIG and it's members need to do to make the experience more valueable than ever - for we are really investing in ourselves.
* IT AIN'T JUST STOCKS: If you read a good book by a good trader, you'll often find they start with stocks and end with other investments. For the market is not always where the best action is. Today, you hear a good deal about COMMODITIES. There are many ways to invest in commodities and many definitions of what a commodity really is (for example, is Forex really a commodity). Let's learn a little about commodities and perhaps some firms (which really have stock) that might be a surrogate for commodities themselves.
....and Finally, we need to pick our topics for October. Bring a stock or value investing topic, hopefully one you can present or lead in discussion. The group will pick two or three for the following meeting. Remember, all of us, not just the presenter, should do some homework - all the better to participate and exchange ideas and participation.
So that makes for both a tidy monthly disbursement, but significant tax free or low tax income. While Canada withholds a 15% tax, it's rebateable to US shareholders and also qualifies for the 14$ domestic tax rate (one NAFTA advantage). Most of the larger stocks are dual listed - on an American and a Canadian stock exchage - you can trade in $US and get your monthly dividends without a costly foreign exchange.
Like all energy related stocks latelymost are hot properties cooling downb. To pick the best, look for top management, good, long-lived properties, a cheap acquisiting and production operating expense plus potential for growth through both operational expansion and possible merger. For there is a that prospect, as weaker Trusts are rolled up.
For the August meeting, we will explore 9 of the larger trusts, all co-listed on both the Toronto and NYSE or AMEX. Get up to date on the overall field and hear about one or more potential winners all just a few minutes. Just, Trust Me!
BUT IF YOU DON'T" We also have two additional topics for the meeting. One in domestic energy and another in speciality insurance. They are:
ONEOK (OKE) is another energy play, this one from Mid-America. OKE is a diversified energy company servicing more than 2,000,000 customers in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. It's also a 47.5% partner in ONEOK Partners L.P. (OKS), the former pipeline Northern Border Partners. In short, it's a Gas (giant).
Philadelphia Consolidated (PHLY), an old friend of VI SIG is a local insurance speciality provider. An institutional favorite, PHLY revenues and earnings have been on a five year tear and not so suprisinging so has the price. Even with a few bad years just before the turn of the century, so has the price. Why? Cause there's gold in those tailored policies for niche offerings, commercial and speciality lines. Things the giants of insurance don't have the time and talent to master.
If you'd read the news, listened to TV or Radio or visited your local gas station, you know that "Cheap Energy is Gone" sounds distressingly familiar. It's seemly true (baring a crackerjack depression) or an OPEC attack to derail alternate energy moves (something they had orchestrated before). The Perfect Storms in the Gulf last year and all the Hedge funds gaming of the situation, combined with some Congressional miscues and a dash of Worldwide Terrorism and Civil Unrest just pushed a bad situation into worse shape.
Yet it's also true that North America and the world do have abundant energy resources and the technology to develope new ways to extract it, use it and conserve it, too. So tonights effort is all about the foundamentals of the situation. While we won't be reporting on specific stocks, we hope to at least mention some of the leading firms and even some of the new firms that seem to be making important strides.
The areas we hope to cover include Old Energy as New Energy (familiar names rediscovered), Flegeling Energy (Now Technology and new areas not yet recognized as players by most people today) and Weapons Supplier (who sell services, materials and technology) to the Energy Companies. We' venture where few energy companies have gone: on land, see and air and both backward and retrospectively in time.
Bring you own ideas, for if time allows, we'll have a group grope on the Investment Prospects in this new world of Energy.
* Comtech (CMTL) Steady Growth and Profitability seems to mark most quarters at CMTL. Telecom technology seems to have been good for them so far. The Analysts seem to think that the future is good , too. What say you?
* Conoco-Phillips (COP): I've been in and out of this melange of Oil Secondaries. Conoco to Duport and back out. Phillips and it's wanderings and now former Burlington Resurces shareholds join the pack. So Gas and Oil underpin COP. What does that mean, and are the bullish pack of COP analysts right or just reflecting the success of the recent past?
* Ashland (ASH): Once a small secondary oil company, ASH has evolved into a speciality chemical company and distributor. The analysts love ASH even though it's recent record is spotty to down. What do they know, anything?
* Briggs and Stratton (BGG): Engines is Us, says the Briggs and Murray divisions of the company. Considering the massive global enginer competition for lawnmowers, snowmobiles and the like, BGG has recoverd from the imports shock and produced a nice growth record. Yet earnings have been erratice and poor lately. Again, the pros are bullish. What do they know, and what do we know.
* Cobra Electronics (COBR): Breaker Buddy, Cobra is not the CB and Radar Buster firm of old. Yet Communications is clearly their forte. Spotty growth, yet good profits (except usually the March quarter) have been the watchword. Just one analyst covers this $100M+ firm. He loves it. Do you? Remember your EDGE can be in undiscovered firms that most folks have long ignored - that is, at the right time
Each of us is likely to have owned or currently own one or more of these babys and more likely we have owned some of their products or been a customer of them one time or another. Our EDGE here might be that these are essentially secondary firms in their industies - a bit smaller than average. You might expect weak analyst coverag, but most do have their following and it's a Bullish one. Yet the weak analyst/Wall Street coverage you might expect is not the case. Most have good analytic coverage and a positive group of follers. Given the volatility of their business areas is this correct - does the past fortell the future. Would you be a buyer, a holder or a seller today?
Well, share your knowledge tonight!
So Dell must push " non-PC " products more and perhaps offer "VISTA READY" systems for early adapters.
So one might expect a dull selling season for months to come at Dell. Yet we all know that the market for a stock rises on expectations, so Dell's stock might run ahead of the actual market for new PCs and other "must have" items during the coming quarters.
That leaves investors with a "when to jump in" decision, providing they'd be Dell - Aware investors at all. At this meeting, we hope to discuss these and other factors that might make it time to consider Dell - or perhaps time to push Dell off the table for new investments. Come and find out what the group thinks!
The second stock is "TBD" as the promised presenter is unable to make the meeting. We will have a topic to take it's place and this will be posted here prior to the meeting.
This winter, we have been looking at a lot of "paired stocks", ones that had a common theme, industry or other noticeable similarity. Well take a look at this pair and try to fine it. I say it's the "U" connection contrast - "Upper-U" and "Lower-U". If you know what this is - you must be as mired in the '60s as i a,!
On the other hand, as posited below" maybe these two are twins beneath the skin. Or maybe the "evil" and "good" twins......
Let's go "Upper-U" with Dell (DELL). Dell has been the talk of the town, a real modern day wonder for yeats. Their innovative distribution model has beated a lot of PC companies into submission. So it's truely an "Upper". Unfortunately, Dell investors are not as happy. DELL is no higher than in was 9 (yes, EIGHT) years ago and today stands well below it's 1999 peak of just under $60.00. While sales have been on a tear, earnings have only plodded along, not rocketed ahead. To make matters worse, 2006 is the year of waiting. In this case, it's waiting for VISTA, Microsofts much delayed (what's so new) revised Operating System. That means slowing PC sales and likely rapidly falling PC prices (boy, how true). Look at the Dell catalog - it's chock-a-block with non-PC items. Will next Winder bring lots of Dell Xmas Gifts and a surge of Business PC Buys? When will it be Dells time again.
<
Tyco (TYC) has been "Lower-U". That's mostly due to the "Dennis Swinging In the Wind" publicity, brought on by the former CEO. Interestingly, TYCs current stock price and it's Y2000 peak are very similar to Dell's - that is except for the crash of 2002. Sales have been fairly level for years, while Earnings only started to climb back to their former glory in 2005.
But Denis is gone, as a parts of the company. Yet many of Tyco's divisions were apparently good business. So the Tyco question is "Will eventual recovery make Tyco a good investment soon?" We hope to devine an answer tonight.
With such a parallel in financials over the last five years, which one of these twins is the investment for the next five years?
First Financial (FF) is a NYSE closed-end fund focusing on savings and loan quipty and debt securities. As with many Closed-End funds FF sells at a modest (about 12%) discount from it's underlying holdings value. Earnings (reported only twice a year) have been substantial as are the EOY annual payouts (mostly from capital gains it appears). In short, rather dull but profitable. Sodull, that not a single analyst follows it (not unusual for a Closed-End trust).Moreover, FF stock is off a head and shoulders formation that has taken the price down substantially from it's late 21004 peak. So what's up (not the price) at FF and why? That's a mystery that will be solved Tuesday night.
Our second stock review is really more than that. While the primary target is Whiting Petroleum (WLL), we're also going to look at the Oil and Gas Industry, too. Whiting has been holding in a wide range near new highs for over a year. During that time sales and profits have been good, but not truely tracking the price of it's products. Yet Whiting has a substantial Analyst's following. So let's see how WLL stacks up with them, it's sector and the market. Perhaps there are a few other names worth of a look in these uncertain energy times.
* Our first stock (at 7 PM will be AirGas (ARG) long a provider of pure gasses to the metalurgical, medical and technlogy industries. ARG also handles a range of welding accessories and protective gear. Gasses are traditionally extracted by luqifying air and slowly raising the temperature. At specific temperatures, specific air components return to the gasious state allowing Oxygen, Nitrogen and other gasses to be extracted and captures. Many rare gasses (such as Argon) have become an increasing large and profitable part of the business and technology gas useage has boomed. So perhaps ARG is a "gas" for investors, and I don't mean a laughing gas........
* The second stock is CEPHELON (CEPH) a locally headquartered stock. CEPH is an emerging drug marketing power. What CEPH excells in is marketing and product extension. Many of their product items have been created from "orphan" items languishing in a larger company. For what might be a small potatoes product ignored at a giant firm can be a bonanza at a smaller firm that knows how to market the product and extend the product line to new applications or in new forms. Moreover CEPH has it's own drug development staff working on proprietary products, too. Recently CEPH stock has advanced smartly with the resolution of a patent spat on Providigal, their lead product and announcements of several new acquisitions and business relationships. They also have proprietary drugs in the Clinic, too.
Cephalon's Investor Relations Director will be presenting. His portion of the evening will start just before 8 PM and last about a half hour to leave time for questions and discussion. You might also want to visit the Cephalon web site. Two webcasts available on the are a presentation at a Merrill Lynch Biotech conference and the Feb. 14, 2006 Earnings Report.
Well, no that your've made it (you did sell at the top, didn't you?), it might be time to look for some more attractive investments. Here is a pair that we will be talking about at this meeting. At bit of an unlikely pair, given our often used paradyme of matching two stocks.
First is HBSC Holdings PLC (HBC) a Far East (read Hong Kong) financial empire. It's already up close to 10% this year. (How often our groups picks, do just that - jump up just after we schedule them and well before we present them.) But since the stock has been in a trading range for more than two years, it's quite likely that this move has a ways to go.
The other is CABELAS (CAB) which is the sporting good store of all sporting goods store. Nominally a mid-west chain CAB features giant stores with EVERYTHING for the sports-man and woman (and child). Avid hunters, fishers and outdoors types think they've died and gone to heaven when they first walk into these giant stores.
But does the typical CAB shareholder think so. In the two years as a public holding CAB has been in a fairly steady slide down. If the concept works, the bottom might be here now.
Can we tell you more. Sure! Just show up Tuesday night to find our a lot more about two quite different opportunities.
AFTER WE END: NOTE: As traditional, December is Dining Out month for VI SIG. After the meeting, we move on to a local restaurant for some Dutch Treat snacking (read Pig Out). So don't forget the meeting after the meeting.
R.I.P.: It's not a memorial service for REPCO, not quite. But Bob Bolder is going to give us his analysis about what killed REPCO. Moreover, he'll be making some points about just when a good investor might have sensed that all was not well. For one of the most important things is that we learn from both our successes and failures.
B.T.W. It's interesting to note that while a lot of people lost a lot, the after-story was that things were not so bad for the people who held investments in REPCO.
If you have access to the December issue of S.F.O (Stocks , Futures, Options) magazine, take a look at the review there, too. And while you are thinking about it, go to "www.sfo.mag" (no link provided) to sign up for a free subscription to this glossy monthly. It covers a lot a areas with a variety of interesting articles.
SCREEN DOOR: It's closing, as we do the third mini-installment of our session on Stock Screening. We;ll construct and run a screen or two, using real screening tools. In addition, we'll make a handout of some reference material to screening sources. Screening is not picking, but a well constructed screen can lead you to the kind of investments you like - the ones that bring in the bucks!
The VI SIG regular meetings will continue with our normal December meeting.
AFTER THE EVENT COMMENT: YOU MISSED A GOOD ONE, IF YOU MISSED DR. SIEGEL!!!
Often, when a sector gets hot, the stocks in it rocket. But there is often opportunity remaining undiscovered in the Weapons Providers. In this case, we are talking about the oil industry and in particular Baker Hughes (BHI) as a "provider". In case you have not guessed, the weapons provider is the firm that sells the tools, supplies and services that all of the frontline players are using. When you invest in the front line players, you have to pick the winners. Oftentimes, those hidden providers will be winners no matter who amoung the front line players wins - they sell to them all.
In the case of CHI, they provide and extensive range of oil field supplies, materials and support. Naturally, as energy prices rise, so do profits and those profits are often plowed back into more exploration, betterment of existing wells and all of the things that BHI can provide. So our goal tonight is to see if BHI potential is fully valued in it's industry or is it, like so many weapons providers, still underappreciated and undervalued.
STOCK SCREENING II: After our previous overview of Stock Screening tools, it's time to look a bit at an actual screening process. We will consider where do you start, how do you get a good screen and what you can to do make a good one better. And, of course, do you have the confidence to pull the trigger on the stocks your screen finds.
Our effort will be brief, but here's a good way to see if stock screening tools should be added to your arsenal of weapons (see they are everywhere).
Stock Investor is a complete package to screening tools. It's based on a large data base of fundamental (and some technical) data on about 8,000 stocks. Using screens supplied by AAII (including a monthly pick) you can do screens that mimic the approachs of well know investors such as O'Neill and Buffett. Better still you can take these screens and modify them or create entirely new screens to suit your needs.
SI is, in fact, more. It's got a comprehensive reporting tool allowing you to general complete reports on individual stocks as well as your screened list. You can even include future projections on the stocks by analysts, comparisons of individual stocks with overall market and sector performance and invent new indicators calculated from various data elements in the data base. In short, a powerful tool.
But there are also other screening tools to be mentioned briefly (including a free one, that's very similar in many ways to SI) and well as some consideration of techniques applicable to using any of these tools.
We'll also have Bob do our onw stock. It's Time Warner (TW), one of the oddments of recent market history. TQ was a faiding dowinger of publishing. Along came AOL, announcing for all to hear that a remake was in hand for the new world of the Internet.
Now we see that AOL is faiding fast, TW publications continue on, but that TW has a new media foothold in the on-line world of Cable. So where does all of this confusion leave TW. Is it a future star, now overlooked. Or will turmoil bring it to an end such as AT&T, Sears, and a lot of names that are not there anymore?
Yes, how do you find new stock targets. You might use the experts (ranging from Value Line to your barber). But one good method is to use a screening system. AAII publishes it's own, but there are others; including some free ones on the Internet. While most have less Data Reference Points (AAII Stock Investor offers several hundred fundamental points - free internet ones often have less than 50). But any screener can reduce your universe of perhaps 7,000 exchange listed stocks to just a few. You merely supply the criteria and the Screener does the rest.
AAII's SI even comes with some "prerolled screens". For example, a popular screen often provided in many systems is a "Warren Buffet" screen. While the great man didn't write the screen, an expert concocted a screen with the criteria appropriate to the target. Remember, a screen can't do everything. For example, the popular O'Neill/I.B.D. CANSLIM criteria include some judgement calls. For example, the "N" in CANSLIM stands for "new". It might be new product, new management or some other monumental "new" factor for the company or it's industry. How can a numeric data base provide such judgement calls - it's limited to definable numeric values. Note too, some systems even allow for Technical Analysis screening at the same time.
So your selection of screening systems must consider the screening criteria appropriate to your own personal investing system. Often you need to compromise your filtering factors to generate a short list.
But no short list is a "buy" list. It's only a way to focus on the best prospects. The final judgement relies on your own intellect.
Our conservative stock for the night is Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK), one well managed bank in an often overlooked segment of the country. It's not completely unknown (at least a half dozen analyists cover it) and while they are marginally favorable in their ratings, it's hard to see why OZRK does not rate higher based on it's steady growth in revenue and earnings.
Our other "Savings" company could not be much more different from OZRK. eResearch (ERES) is a small Philadelphia company with a unique speciality. ERES specializes in remote heart monitoring for drug research programs. Today the FDA is moving from requiring heart monitoring as part of testing for just heart medications to requiring it for all new drug developments - and if you want that ERES is the one place to get it. They have an international business, getting modest contracts from a host of domestic and international manufacturers. Interestingly, their cost of doing business is fairly constant since they have the mechanical capacity in place. So ERES prospers (or fails) as business flows in. Recently it's been flowing slowly, but with new pressure from the FDA, it should move up smartly.
So which of these firms are going to Save your investment portfolio. Try our meeting to find out. And be sure to bring a candidate for our September List, too.
Tonight we'll review the Media Game as it is played today, evaluate and discuss some of the best positioned firms and if time allows touch on members favorites. So be sure to pick a favorite media stock of your and contribute information as well as gain it. Remember, Media today is not the media of old. Just think Viacom and Comcast!
One is a brewing giant Budweizer (BUD). It's one that can qwench your thurst for both beer and profits. Taking their name from their Czech hometown of Budvar (that's Budweizer in the Gernam localsprache) they lead the industry in suds and often in profits.. No matter what you think of their beer (and all the CARBs), we can all drink to that. Sure they have their problems (My favorite beer, made by the Czech firm Budvar (in fact a newcomer vs. american BID) seems to own the Budweizer tradename in Europe as well as perhaps the BUD name there too. But here in America, look for Czechvar as the situation is reversed here.)
To keep it in perspective, BUD spills more beer than the tiny Czech firm makes!
The other investment we're going to throw some light on is CREE (Cree). That's a little firm in North Carolina which so far has held it's own against international giants. What do they do - mostly LED's, those tiny glow-worms that show up on cell phones, traffic lights and most electronic gadgets. But CREE has found it's road to profitable operation by specializing in the more exotic, costly, forms, not the main line commodity chips. Like the elusive BLUE LED now being used from car dashboards to the next generation of BlueLight DVDs. Specializing in the difficult electro-metalolgy, they also have created high brightness devices and some unusual RF transitors. On the horizon is the race for WHITE LED's suitable for even room lighting. Additionally, it's more than just an IP (Intellectual Property) firm, as they are vertically integrated to accomplish these wonders.
So Tuesday, lighten up in more than one way!
Tonight, we'll review a couple of educational stocks. Corinthian Colleges was in the news recently about their admissions/accounting practices (since settled w/o admission of misdoing). COCO is a large, national organization with both physical and electronic campus operations. On the other hand, EVCI is a microcap specializing in New York City (with a new venture into Allentown, Pa.) subsized post-secondary education.
As funding by local, state and national governments is critical to both (EVCI especially) both are vulnerable to the ups and downs of this funding as well as the complex regulations that govern it. Remember, "remedial education" (including making up for what public education and teen anti-intellectual bias) includes more than just classwork. It's often necessary to hand hold students who lack the discipline required for the working world. COCO however, has a variety of locations, tutorial areas and a goodly percentage of students who have other funding sources (employer, self, etc.) However, their record (primarily placement upon graduation) and areas of specialized course work can do much to overcome these variances.
So here's a start on getting smart and perhaps getting rich on Getting Smart itself.
Time permitting, we'll also take a look at a more traditional economy shoppers goal - Dollar General. Not only is Dollar General the low price item leader, but it's often the best shopping deal in towns to small for the big guys. Focusing on limited lines of sharply priced goods, DG is often the destination for those trying to get much more for their Dollar.
So where will your next shopping trip to the Street (Wall, that is) take you and will you too become a discount shopper?
Fidelity (FNF) is one of the giants of the Title Insurance industry. It's been a profitable, high cash flow business. Working through a number of subsidiaries, FNF hasn't become a household name, but it's certainly been a great stock over the last few years. The booming residential housing market means that each family move makes another potential FNF customer. However, the last year has not been one of growth in profits, due to several acquisitions and increased operating costs. So has this been merely a pause in a splendid growth record or is it a sign of a topping off. Fine our Tuesday night.
THINKING ABOUT NEXT MONTH: Remember, we need a flow of new stock ideas to ensure attractive stock targets to review in future VI SIG meetings. Every member should bring a new "Value" stock target suggestion 3, 4 or more times a year. It's often a stock you recently purchased or are thinking about buying - for getting it studied by the group is a great way to augment your research and monitoring. Having a "second opinion" is often the best way to complete and confirm your own analysis.
So we hope that two unconventialy ventures into the health field may mitigate your immediate distress at the market and bring the smile of future profits soon.
Occasionally, we depart from these default dates due to speaker and facility availability. So always check the schedule below and in the member bulletins carefully. When different dates are scheduled, we flag those events with a "###" (above)
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WEDNESDAY (note the new night for FEBRUARY ONLY) FEBRUARY 17th, 2010. Same Time, Same Place, Different Night in FEBRUARY, 2010: After a somewhat disjoint January meeting which unearthed in a large number of value company prospects, it will be hard to surpass them with our February selections - but we will try.
Tuesday, SEPTEMBER 15, 2009: For our last meeting at the Luddington Library (they will be closing soon for a reconstruction job), let's bring our best and finest Value Investing stocks for review. With the strong recent market recovery, a lot of beaten down stocks are already up substantially, yet perhaps still undervalued. And those overlooked stocks may be the new leaders. Beneficiaries of new government policies may prosper, others may fade. So, what's you best idea?
Tuesday AUGUST 18, 2009: GREEN SHOOTS OR DEAD CAT BOUNCE?: Up until the weather turned to real summer, this was a fine spring-summer rally. Washington pundits have been detecting "Green Shoots". And Mr. Market has been acting as if these shoots fortel a Great Recovery Rally. Mostly that's due to less bad news, apparent avoidance of a collapse of the Dollar and bits of heartening news. No doubt is fine company earnings reports played a big part.
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TUEDAY APRIL 15TH: TAXES ARE DUE, SO MAIL THEM NOW AND COME TO TONIGHT'S MEETING TO DECOMPRESS. As usual, it's a roundtable where each member presents a few minutes on a favorite stock (or changes in a previous months favorite). Since taxes are out of the way, it's a chance to take stock of the markets conditions, look for opportunities, and take action.
>li> TUESDAY FEBRUARY 19,2008: Yup, it's getting harder to do - finding great stocks in today's unhappy markets. But remember, we're investing for the long haul, the market anticipates months ahead and this troubled election year will pass.
Our second stock is Maxim (MXIM), although an institutional favorite, is definitely NOT a household name, even if you already own some of their products. MAXIM makes a wide variety of (primarily analog) integrated circuits that are found in products ranging from computers to the tiny handheld devices (from phones and PDAs to M3 players) we use daily. Because these circuits are peripheral, if necessary, to the device they've build to great speciality semiconductor business. Amazingly, their revenue and profit growth (but not the per share price remain steady. Institutions own about 90% of their shares today. Is this because they know that the boom in such devices will mean even more growth in the future for MXIM? Perhaps they know something we'll divcover, too, on Tuesday.
OTHER VI SIG INFORMATION
VALUE INVESTORS SPECIAL INTEREST GROUP - normally 3rd Tuesday each month, 12 months a year, 7 PM at the Bryn Mawr Ludington Library. But always check the schedule for possible changes and weather related cancellations. Weather cancellations will be posted here as soon as known.